Kalshi 15-Minute Markets — Live

⚠ Leans are simple model ESTIMATES, not financial advice. Read-only; no trading. Data updates about every 60s. Loading…

How the lean is computed

p_mkt = Kalshi yes mid ((bid+ask)/2). Crypto: σ = stdev of 1-min log returns of Coinbase spot (last 60 min); drift = mean 1-min return over last 15 min. Current window: p_spot = N((ln(spot/strike)+drift·t)/(σ√t)), t = minutes left; p_cur = ½·p_mkt + ½·p_spot. Next window (strike ≈ price at the next open): p_next = N(½·drift·15/(σ√15)) — momentum shrunk to 50%. Non-crypto (no free spot feed): p_cur = p_mkt; p_next = 0.5 + 0.25×(5-min change in Kalshi yes price), clamped 5–95%. Confidence = max(p,1−p).

15-second charts

One point about every 15s for the current 15-min window (crypto: Coinbase spot + dashed strike; metals / energy: Kalshi yes %). Earlier points backfilled from 1-min history.